The results if advance polling was discounted.
The results if advance polling was discounted.

According to Radio-Canada’s analysis, the CAQ would have won 10 additional seats (six from the Liberals, four from the PQ) if not for the results of advance polling. That’s not to say the parties that won those seats are any less valid, but it does show how strong François Legault and the CAQ closed out the campaign. At the same time people were realizing the PQ was going down, and hard, and were looking to vote for something instead of voting out of fear against the PQ.

In short, there is a thirst in Quebec for new ideas and the CAQ is the embodiment of that.

From Radio-Canada (translation to follow):

Dans le contexte où le vote par anticipation semble surtout avoir favorisé le Parti libéral et le Parti québécois au détriment de la Coalition avenir Québec, Alain Noël avance deux hypothèses. « Les sondages indiquaient que la CAQ était en montée à la fin de la campagne donc les gens qui ont voté à l’avance n’ont pas pu être influencés par ce mouvement-là, dit-il. D’autre part, on peut penser que la CAQ avait moins de ressources pour organiser le vote par anticipation. »

Translation: In the context in which advance polling seems to have benefited the Quebec Liberal Party and the PQ to the detriment of the CAQ, Noël has two theories: “Polling showed the CAQ with a strong upswing at the end of the campaign and people who voted in advance polls wouldn’t have been affected by that. On the other hand, it’s also possible the CAQ simply had fewer resources to organize advance polling turnout.”

The riding-by-riding breakdown of how each vote would have gone if advance polling results were removed.
The riding-by-riding breakdown of how each vote would have gone if advance polling results were removed.
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